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Sunday, June 5, 2016

Predictions for Euro 2016

Two years ago I coded up a small python model to simulate the world cup. The results back then were more or line with what the general predictions were; Brazil to win.

I updated the model for the Euro 2016 tournament. My data source for matches had gone, so I had to adjust that and I also introduced weights for previous games. Games that are friendly, or longer ago weigh less. The oldest matches I am taking into account are from just after the World Cup.

The results seem more different from the pundits than last time around. France is the favorite (25%), but that is because the home advantage which I set at 0.25 - historically the model has it between 0.2 and 0.3. Poland is the surprising number two with 21%. They did a decent job qualifying, had some good friendlies, so I find it hard to argue with.

Spain and England are basically tied at 11%.  Of course Englands performance could very well decide whether Brexit happens or not, so this is important.

The model does not like Germany's chances much at 8%. The results from two years ago are now weighed only at 30% because of the time gone by.

Just to put my money where my model is, I made an actual bet for Poland to win

Saturday, January 2, 2016

Where the streets have no name

Growing up in the Netherlands I never considered that our system for street addresses wasn't obvious and therefore universal. Street , Postal code, City, Country. How else would you do it? It turns out there are many ways.

Putting the house number before the street actually is more consistent. Not using house numbers, but the number of meters from a crossing gives one a better idea of where the house actually will be. Some places issue house numbers in chronological order rather than in a geographical fashion. Some don't use house numbers at all, but give buildings names. In Japan streets usually don't have names, but the blocks (banchi) do. In India (at least in Hyderabad) there are street names and numbers, but if you want to go somewhere you need to specify the closest landmark - a temple, a shopping mall or maybe an office building.

Bangkok is no exception to these exceptions. Landmarks are also popular, but more to give a general idea where things are. Streets in Bangkok follow more the pattern of rivers than the grid pattern of North American cities with the smallest streets meandering until they flow into a bigger street which in turn meanders until it merges into an even bigger street.

Addresses start with the biggest street which has a name and then count down the number of side streets with odd and even ones on opposite sides of the streets. If the side street has its own side streets, this process is repeated.

It has its own logic to it, but it is confusing to new comers. You ask your hotel what the address is and they say something like "Soi 3." If you then walk around town for a full day and tell your taxi driver "take me home to Soi 3", they'll look at you confused. The third side street of what?

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Moving to Thailand!

Let's start with the news. Tonja and me are moving to Thailand. We don't know yet for how long or exactly where we'll live, but if everything works out with the visa, we should be living in Bangkok from January 2016 on.

Those who know us a little might suspect this is because of the weather or the food or that we're just ready for something else after 4 good years in Berlin. Those things all count on some level, but the real and immediate reason is Triposo, the startup I've working on since leaving Google.

When we started with Triposo, we wanted to build the best travel guide for mobile. I think we mostly succeeded and we'll continue improving over the next years, but we also need to proof that we can make real money or to proof that the unit economics work as is popular to say now.

And while it makes sense to cover the entire world at the same time when you build a algorithmic travel guide (you make something work somewhere and it works everywhere), it is less clear that this is true when it comes to selling services to travellers in the app. We think we need to work closely with local providers in new ways - watch this space for further developments. And that's why I am here.

My last burst of blogging was when we were living in India, so I wanted to pick this up again now that we're back in the tropics.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

What do you do after a genoicide?


Arriving in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda from most other African countries must be a bit of a reverse culture shock; the city is clean and pretty, the traffic not too busy and well behaved. The shops are well laid out and give a sense of prosperity and the people seem healthy and relaxed. The government though recently giving in to a certain degree of authoritarianism, is still efficient with streaks of visionary mixed in; they banned plastic bags and decided to change the national language from French to English for economic reasons (though certain disagreements with the government in Paris might have pushed them over the edge). All in all it feels more like a nation taking its cue from Singapore than South-Africa.

I imagine it is much like Germany must have been in the sixties. It's been about 20 years since Hutu death squads went on a killing spree killing around a million Tutsis and moderate Hutu's in one of the worst genocides of the second half of the twentieth century. Led by Paul Kagame, the current president, the RPF, a Tutsi dominated rebel movement, succeeded in pushing out the genocidistas before the United Nations got their act together.

What puzzles me is how they got back to a state of normalcy. The Rwandese genocide didn't happen in relatively remote concentration camps. It wasn't executed by a small group of well armed extremists. It happened everywhere at the same time, with neighbours killing neighbours, sometimes family members killing each other. People trying to find refugee in churches were sometimes turned over to their killers by nuns and priests, sometimes the Interahamwe would just blow up the church.

After World War II people in the Netherlands would whisper that somebody had been "wrong in the war" when they suspected collaborators or wonder if a visiting German tourist might have been "a good german". Over time that went away, but it took a good while. More than 40 years after the end of the war, football supporters were still celebrating the rare win over the German team declaring they got their grandfathers bicycle back.

In Rwanda they seemed to just have decided to do away with the whole thing. Now there are no more Hutu's or Tutsi, just Rwandese. The events in 1994 were a grim reminder that 80% of humans will turn into mass murderers given the right circumstances. Now Rwanda is showing the world that you can come back from even the worst tragedy imaginable.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

The Paleo diet is wrong about grains


The Paleo diet insists we should only eat things our forefathers ate back in the stone age; our systems just aren't developed to process modern foods. It's an interesting idea that intuitively makes sense although the objection that it's crazy to get health advice from a group of people that had a life expectance of 32 is hard to overlook.

So you're mostly left with a diet of some vegetables and lots of animal protein from meat, fish and eggs. Especially grains are a big no-no. To the untrained eye it appears as yet another low-carb diet with a better back story. I think though that they are wrong about the grains.

I'm writing this while being on a trip to East-Africa, the cradle of humanity. And even though you don't see many primitive hominoids on the planes of the Serengeti, you do see baboons. Baboons aren't great apes so not very related to humans, but they do seem to fill a similar niche as early humans did; they're ape-like creatures living in social groups on the savannahs getting by on whatever they find.

This time of year the Serengeti looks like a field of grain. The rains make the grasses grow tall and all those grasses are laden with seeds. Those seeds are of course nowhere as big as modern grains but it is still free calories to the baboons. And so a common sight is to see a group of baboons "harvesting" "grains". It just seems very unlikely to me that our ancestors would just let that opportunity go.

Monday, January 21, 2013

How Microsoft can win the Mobile Wars

Forbes calls it game over for Microsoft. That seems harsh, but there is no denying that Microsoft hasn't been doing well in the battle for the smart phones. Each quarter it is the same story; Windows Phone market share drops a little, iOS picks up a bit and Android surges ahead. 5 years ago Steve Ballmer might have believed that "There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance." or that "Google doesn’t exactly bubble to the top of the list of the toughest competitors we’ve got going in mobile." but he probably changed his mind by now.

So what's a poor CEO of a waning tech power to do? Hope that the shareholders will let you be CEO for a while longer is probably the first thing, but staying the course doesn't seem like it would do the trick at this point. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Here would be my proposal: switch to Android.

Or rather fork Android. Windows 8 might be quite nice, but Android just has too much momentum at this point and as developer supporting another platform for another let's say optimistically 5% market share just isn't worth it. But if Microsoft comes out with their own version of Android, all apps developed for Googles will just work. Microsofts Android will of course not come with the standard Google Apps, but the Microsoft Android apps aren't too bad and a port of Office seems in the works. As much as we like to talk about the demise of the desktop, Office & Outlook are for most professionals the tools of their trade.

But the kicker is the patent angle. Microsoft makes 10-15 dollars on each Android phone from most manufacturers. They could easily offer Microsofts Android for free. On a 100-200 dollar phone they patent charge makes the difference between profit or loss so this should really move the needle.

The advantage of this strategy is that Microsoft can take over an existing ecosystem while actively taking away from Google. Both the networks and the handset manufacturers are by now nervous about Googles influence so no doubt they'd welcome the competition especially if it means changing almost nothing; it's still Android.

And you'd have to like the irony of Microsoft getting back into the game by way of Open Source.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Triposo Hackathon and the evolution of languages


This week we got the Triposo team together in Sitges, a nice beach town near Barcelona, for some thinking, discussions and general strategizing but also a hackathon in our finest of traditions.

I decided to look at language similarities. I have always been interested in the evolution of languages. It seems though that discussions about the similarity of languages are always a bit arbitrary. You need to compare lists of words, but how do you pick them? If you take the word 'town' in English you'd translate that into German to 'Stadt' and in Dutch it would be 'plaats'. Those words aren't very similar at all. However German also has the word 'Zaun' which sounds very similar to 'town' and means 'fence'. In Dutch there's a word 'tuin' which means 'garden'.

I wanted to take out this arbitrary part and do the comparisons fully automatic and occurred to me that if you only take the cardinal numbers (one to nine for example) into account, you'd take this arbitrariness away. I wouldn't expect those words to change their meaning easily.

We've had phrasebooks in the Triposo apps for a long while now, based on the content from Wikitravel. So I went ahead and wrote a script to extract from those Wikitravel pages for each language the phonetic version of the words one to nine. I then calculated the similarity between all language pairs by calculating some sort of edit distance between the corresponding pairs of words.

Traditionally the edit distance between two words is the minium amount of edits (i.e. deletions and insertions) to change one word into another. So 'town' and 'Zaun' have an edit distance of 6 (delete the 't', 'o' and the 'w', then insert a 'z', 'a' and a 'u' and from that perspective they're not very similar. You can do better by assigning a likelyhood of a specific transitions. The 't' and the german 'z' are a bit similar. Vowel changes are also quite likely to happen etc, etc.

Based on these pairs I then calculated a tree of languages. We start by creating for each language a language group consisting out of only that language. We then merge language groups that have small distances to each other. Subgroups that match well together and slightly less well with the other languages remain subgroups and so a tree is built.

The result is below. As you can see, there are clear groups of the Germanic, Slavic and Roman language groups. They fold together with some other languages into a Indo-European group. There's some other smaller groups that jump out (Turkic, Philippines, Arab) but most really are islands. Finnish and Estonian match up quite nicely, too. I left out some of the languages that the model turns into singletons.



It works surprisingly well given that the data is rather noisy and that is based on phonetic spelling rendered in English which just isn't great.
 
(c) Douwe Osinga 2001-2005, douwe.webfeedback@gmail.com Goede Vertaling Nederlands Duits?